I think your article strikes at the core of this election: do you vote Trump to turn the progressivism off, or vote Harris to maintain American empire(which is good for global human prosperity FYI)
I like how you dissect this issue. I’m an enthusiastic Trump supporter, but I don’t want to get my head in the clouds. He’s a deeply unpopular and freewheeling figure, to put it mildly, but I dislike our cultural institutions far more than I dislike his ranting and raving.
After reading Nate Silver’s herding article and now this, I’m inclined to say that Trump takes the Sun Belt yet loses the electoral college by exactly one vote, lol. That being said, I just want the election to be decisive, even if it’s Harris…
Trump combines border hawk-ism, which is basically the sole tail wind to right wing populism that actually works, with an amicable and funny personality that lets people’s guard down.
That said he’ll probably lose. Polls are herding and hallucinating trump voters, while Jan 6th and abortion have meant that dems simply will not ever have truly low turnout. Not to mention trump outsourced gotv to his incompetent sycophants
538 paints a different picture, where it’s a dead even toss up (negligible edge to Trump) and Trump is behind in national polls. Maybe it depends on which polls you trust.
Well written article, thank you. Among other industries that seem ready for a reset, it seems polling and polling aggregators will be shook up after this. A regular size polling skew in either direction will make this 50/50 election appear to be a landslide.
Thank you. I really enjoyed reading this perspective put in a clear and coherent way. It's not one I have easy access to or one that is often clearly and sanely articulated. Its likely we would not agree on a great number of issues ...but that doesn't mean I don't want to listen
Generally agreed until I read “Elon is probably the most competent human alive today”. Zero evidence for that in a policy context, and if anything, lots of evidence he’s deranged and delusional.
Without Elon, Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, OpenAi(which he started), Neuralink and Boring company wouldn’t exist. You can argue that he himself is the chief engineer for all those companies, but he definitely has the organizational magic to make shit happen. Can we say the same GE, Boeing, etc?
My whole point is none of that means he’s a reliable steward of public policy — why trust him to properly thread the needle with retirement benefits, healthcare, social spending, etc. Even worse, he’s actually shown himself to be impulsive and careless with misinformation — traits that should disqualify him for policy-making no matter how well he managed to do in the private sector.
I really don't understand your conclusion. If Harris would continue a system that has brought the most material wealth ever seen and Trump, as you freely admit, doesn't follow the rule of law, shouldn't you be enthusiastically supporting Harris. Sure, I don't agree with everything she says, but I don't understand the disgust I see some people express. She seems not that different from Obama (policy wise or personality), someone that the center left still admires gently. What is the difference?
She supports policies that are racist and sexist towards me. On net this is superior to Trump, for the reasons we both articulate, but I don’t support policies that are racist and sexists towards me for obvious reasons.
I think your article strikes at the core of this election: do you vote Trump to turn the progressivism off, or vote Harris to maintain American empire(which is good for global human prosperity FYI)
Yep
I like how you dissect this issue. I’m an enthusiastic Trump supporter, but I don’t want to get my head in the clouds. He’s a deeply unpopular and freewheeling figure, to put it mildly, but I dislike our cultural institutions far more than I dislike his ranting and raving.
After reading Nate Silver’s herding article and now this, I’m inclined to say that Trump takes the Sun Belt yet loses the electoral college by exactly one vote, lol. That being said, I just want the election to be decisive, even if it’s Harris…
Thanks for reading it and sharing your thoughts!
Trump combines border hawk-ism, which is basically the sole tail wind to right wing populism that actually works, with an amicable and funny personality that lets people’s guard down.
That said he’ll probably lose. Polls are herding and hallucinating trump voters, while Jan 6th and abortion have meant that dems simply will not ever have truly low turnout. Not to mention trump outsourced gotv to his incompetent sycophants
Seems plausible! The truth will out soon
538 paints a different picture, where it’s a dead even toss up (negligible edge to Trump) and Trump is behind in national polls. Maybe it depends on which polls you trust.
Seems plausible! We will find out election night!
good take and interesting read. pop the popcorn since this is going to be an interesting one
Glad you enjoyed it!
Nice analysis! I added you on X btw! We will find out next week....well...maybe.
Hopefully…
Yes, I suspect this will drag out into January.
Good stuff! Thanks Peter!
Glad you enjoyed it! We should catch up sometime!
Well written article, thank you. Among other industries that seem ready for a reset, it seems polling and polling aggregators will be shook up after this. A regular size polling skew in either direction will make this 50/50 election appear to be a landslide.
Yep! We will find out soon! Thanks for reading
Solid piece! Can’t wait for the election to be over so we can look back and find out what’s what.
Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts!
Enjoyed this post- thank you
Thanks for reading!!
Thank you. I really enjoyed reading this perspective put in a clear and coherent way. It's not one I have easy access to or one that is often clearly and sanely articulated. Its likely we would not agree on a great number of issues ...but that doesn't mean I don't want to listen
Thank you so much for reading! It’s where you disagree that discussion is worth having!
Now that is where we agree! Looking forward to reading more
Generally agreed until I read “Elon is probably the most competent human alive today”. Zero evidence for that in a policy context, and if anything, lots of evidence he’s deranged and delusional.
Without Elon, Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, OpenAi(which he started), Neuralink and Boring company wouldn’t exist. You can argue that he himself is the chief engineer for all those companies, but he definitely has the organizational magic to make shit happen. Can we say the same GE, Boeing, etc?
Bingo.
My whole point is none of that means he’s a reliable steward of public policy — why trust him to properly thread the needle with retirement benefits, healthcare, social spending, etc. Even worse, he’s actually shown himself to be impulsive and careless with misinformation — traits that should disqualify him for policy-making no matter how well he managed to do in the private sector.
I really don't understand your conclusion. If Harris would continue a system that has brought the most material wealth ever seen and Trump, as you freely admit, doesn't follow the rule of law, shouldn't you be enthusiastically supporting Harris. Sure, I don't agree with everything she says, but I don't understand the disgust I see some people express. She seems not that different from Obama (policy wise or personality), someone that the center left still admires gently. What is the difference?
She supports policies that are racist and sexist towards me. On net this is superior to Trump, for the reasons we both articulate, but I don’t support policies that are racist and sexists towards me for obvious reasons.